Prediction of future episodes of depression in primary medical care : development of a risk factor profile

Depression is a major public health problem in Europe. There is currently no method of predicting onset and maintenance of depression.We aim to1) develop and validate a multi-factor European risk score, with an estimated specificity and sensitivity of 70%, for use by GPs to predict the onset and maintenance of depression and;2) explore the risk for the onset and maintenance of episodes of depression among primary care attenders in seven European countries.895 consecutive attenders aged 18-75 will be recruited from urban and rural general practices in each country. Information on any current depression as well as a number of likely risk factors for depression will be collected at baseline and 6 and 12 months later. A multi-factor risk score, analogous to those used in the prediction of cardiac events, will be developed to assess principal risk factors for future onset and duration of depression.