Exponential smoothing methods are very commonly used for forecasting demand. Regarding the process of forecasting demand, the main approach towards the selection and optimisation of alternative methods relates to the minimisation of forecast error measures such as the mean square error (MSE). With regard to Pegels׳ classification of usage of proper forecasting methods, HW methods (additive and multiplicative) are appropriate for demand with trend and seasonality which corresponds to B-2 and B-3. But HW methods are not accurate enough for demand with large noise that is often a property of real data. In this paper we present improved an HW method for demand with noise and we demonstrate that a reduction in forecast error (MSE) can be reached. From the results, we prove that the proposed method is more accurate than the existing ones and that it is the proper choice for forecasting noisy demand. Furthermore, we show that essential reduction of supply chain costs can be achieved if we use improved the HW method for joined optimisation.
COBISS.SI-ID: 22450406
In this paper, we provide original evidence on the economic role of placement agents as the financial intermediaries between general and limited partners in private equity. Our research is based on 902 private equity funds raised over the period of 1990 to 2011. This data shows that general partners hire placement agents to provide funding for approximately one tenth of the private equity funds they manage. The multitude of services provided by placement agents adds value to both general as well as limited partners. We find a positive impact from the placement agent’s relative fees on a fund’s performance. Similar to other financial intermediaries, the costliness of the placement agent decreases with the investment amounts committed by the limited partners. The fee levels are determined by negotiations with a general partner as well as by the phenomenon of free riding. Further, we find that placement agents do not take advantage of the heterogeneity of the fund’s returns and the potentially high benefits of successful investment picks. Namely, they predominantly prefer to charge their clients fixed fees. We conclude from our findings that limited partners succeed in picking better performing funds because they invest relatively higher amounts of their available allocations of private equity into the funds that yield higher returns.
COBISS.SI-ID: 22207718
The workload of most academics involves two main activities: research and teaching. Despite the dual nature of the work, career advancement usually chiefly depends on research performance. Since academics are rational actors, warnings are beginning to emerge that current predominantly research-based performance evaluation systems may be detrimental to creativity and innovation in teaching. This paper investigates the substance of these warnings by revisiting the relationship between research performance and teaching quality. Using a large cross-disciplinary sample of academics within a research-oriented university, we find, consistent with prior evidence, that research productivity is not related to teaching quality, whereas research quality is positively related with teaching quality. These findings discount fears that research-based performance evaluation in academia may be detrimental to teaching quality.
COBISS.SI-ID: 22901222
Using a worldwide bank sample from 2000 to 2010, this article analyzes the determinants of bank lending behavior during the global financial crisis highlighting the role of bank capital. It reveals that the high quality of the bank funding strategy (tier 1 bank capital and retail deposits) and prevalent government backing were crucial to continuous bank lending during the crisis period. This effect was especially pronounced in non-OECD and BRIC countries. We also point out that, although higher use of tier 2 capital and interbank deposits could be important for increased lending during a normal period, this did not support lending activities during the financial crisis. The article concludes by suggesting that in crisis periods high-quality bank capital is a bank's competitive strength.
COBISS.SI-ID: 22344934
This article provides original evidence on IPO underpricing and long-run underperformance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and compares results to the European Union’s developed capital markets from 2000 to 2009. Using both index-adjusted and CAPM-adjusted returns, we find significant underpricing that is significantly higher than underpricing of comparable IPOs in the European Union’s developed capital markets. We show that the CEE’s initial IPO returns also exhibit significantly higher volatility. In line with the asymmetric information theory, we indicate that smaller IPOs in the CEE region have greater underpricing than the larger IPOs. Contrary to the literature, we unambiguously confirm long-run underperformance toward the benchmarks. In some model specifications, we also find that IPO long-run underperformance in the CEE region is less present than in the European Union’s developed capital markets.
COBISS.SI-ID: 22790118