We provide a new, stochastic, approach to study input–output analysis and calculation of multipliers. We apply the ?ndings to the calculation of production and employment multipliersforselectedEuropeancountries. Input–output(IO)analysisis, inprinciple,oneof the most commonly used, but a non-stochastic approach to national accounts. Yet, it suffers from several common critiques, not least being ?xed input structure in each industry; all products of an industry are identical or are made in ?xed proportions to each other; and each industry exhibits constant returns to scale in production. To this end, we use symbolic data analysis (following, e.g. Michalski, Diday and Stepp, 1981; Michalski and Stepp,1983; Diday, 1987; Cazesetal., 1997; Brito, 1994; 1995; Chouakria, 1998; Billard and Diday, 2000; 2002; 2003; 2006; Lima Neto and De Carvalho, 2008; 2010; Ichino, 2011; Ahn et al., 2012; Cheira, Brito and Duarte Silva, 2015; Verde and Irpino, 2015; Diday, 2015) to construct distributions (histogram variables) in the cells of IO tables instead of numerical aggregated values. Using such an approach, we are able to include the stochastic component in the modelling with IO tables in a novel way. To combine the cells (i.e. combining—adding and multiplying—distributions), we provide foundations of a distribution calculus, based on Fourier and harmonic analysis (in particular, the concept of convolutions; see, e.g. Hardy, 1949; 1966; Grattan-Guinness, 1970; Bottazzini, 1986; Luzin, 1998; Heil, 2010). We use basic concepts from the algebra of random variables (Springer, 1979) and four distribution operations: addition / convolution; distribution countdown; multiplication; and division including inverse distribution. We develop new Leontief formulas for two basic examples: when the total result is fixed or it is a distribution itself. The problem of inverting a large random matrix is solved using existing results from RMT (random matrix theory) and numerical methods. We are able to derive the con?dence intervals of production and employment multipliers, calculated in a novel way and apply the methodology to derive the sectorial multipliers for the EU countries in the period 2008–2010. Preliminary results con?rm the validity of the approach and show important advantages of taking into account the stochastic componentof the IO analysis in a manner as proposed in the paper.
F.23 Development of new system-wide, normative and programme solutions, and methods
COBISS.SI-ID: 1894030We have developed a special fiscal framework model (MFTS model), the purpose of which is to analyse the medium-term fiscal position through: a) medium-term forecasts of revenues and expenditures, b) analysis of the effects of economic activity on the fiscal position, c) analysis of implicit liabilities (ageing costs). and d) developing different “consolidation scenarios” with quantified effects of government action. The model is a powerful fiscal policy decision-making tool that promotes convergence and sets a reasonable time-frame for achieving fiscal targets. The strength of the model is that it allows the effects of different fiscal policies to be demonstrated with the aim of achieving macro-fiscal policy objectives. It enables: a) the development of scenarios of different combinations and intensities of expenditure reduction and reallocation, b) an analysis of the pace of implementation of consolidation measures, which determines the time needed for fiscal consolidation, and c) an analysis of the feasibility of achieving the medium term objective (MTO )within a predetermined time-frame.
F.23 Development of new system-wide, normative and programme solutions, and methods
COBISS.SI-ID: 15873027We have developed a new version of the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model of the Slovenian economy, based on the new social accounts matrix for 2015. The model enables the user to create various scenarios of structural reforms or individual economic policy measures and thus assess complex effects at the macro or branch level. With the possibility of preparing expert bases and possible consequences of the proposed measures, the quality of the final proposal of measures is further increased and their possible negative consequences are reduced. The newly developed graphical interface enables the user to prepare, execute and display the results of any scenario in a friendly environment.
F.23 Development of new system-wide, normative and programme solutions, and methods
COBISS.SI-ID: 15883523