Land-based climate change mitigation and adaptation

Land-based mitigation and adaptation (LBMA, changes to agriculture, forestry and other land-use) is a promising approach to capture CO2 and partially revert and adapt to climate change, providing numerous co-benefits like increased biodiversity, reduced erosion, timber resources, and water purification. In current large-scale climate assessments, LBMA is insufficiently represented by failing to consider the needs of farmers and ecosystems. Existing methods to assess upscaling of LBMA across Europe therefore cannot identify most crucial conflicts with agriculture, biodiversity, water flows, and even CO2 capture. In this project, we propose an approach for developing people-centered climate solutions. The project goes beyond climate-oriented LBMA assessments by finding synergistic opportunities for climate adaptation and ecological restoration. The project team will combine case-study synthesis with advanced spatial analysis and modelling to: 1) evaluate how LBMA in Europe can contribute to agricultural climate adaptation and ecological conditions, both in positive and negative terms, 2) map the spatial distribution of expected synergies and tradeoffs of LBMA and how transferable such solutions are across the wider EU region; 3) synthesize spatial data on numerous socio-economic and environmental characteristics (soil, climate, state of ecosystems) to identify priority areas for EU-scale LBMA deployment. The project is innovative in numerous ways. First, it takes a full socio-ecological systems approach towards LBMA. Secondly, it integrates data and knowledge on interrelations between LBMA and climate adaptation and ecosystem restoration. Third, the project will provide new modelling and mapping tools that better integrate social, agricultural and ecological dimensions in land-use assessments. Finally, the project will identify areas of LBMA opportunities and tradeoffs across the wider EU region. This way, the project will inspire a new generation of large-scale LBMA assessments, presenting crucial scientific innovations to avoid solutions with important social and ecological tradeoffs, leading to more realistic, fair and acceptable LBMA implementation.