The impact of climate change on avalanches in Slovenia

RESEARCH GAP : Avalanches reflect complex interactions between topography, snow cover and meteorological conditions, i.e., geographic constants (rock type, surface form, slope, exposure, avalanche deposits) and variables (occurrence, vegetation type and density, climate, and weather conditions). In previous research, we have analyzed the effects of geographic constants on avalanche occurrence in Slovenia, and the study of the effects of relief factors is ongoing. This project proposal addresses avalanches as a natural disaster that can best reflect climate as a geographic variable in Alpine regions. Extreme avalanches are becoming more common due to climate change. Climate factors and snow cover are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change, so extreme avalanches are an excellent indicator of a ""new reality"" in which extremes are increasing and lesser-known connections are being made. On Kredarica (Julian Alps, Triglav, 2514 m), more than 100 cm of new snow has been measured within 24 hours three times since 1952, all in the last decade. EXPECTED RESULTS: Compared to neighboring Alpine countries, the influence of climatic factors on the snow cover and avalanches in Slovenia is poorly studied, although the situation differs significantly from other parts of the Alps due to the influence of moist air masses from the Mediterranean region. By observing long-term climatic and short-term weather conditions, we will investigate how they affect snow, snow cover and avalanches in the Julian Alps and the Karawanks. The research will focus on analysis of meteorological data from recent decades and snow and avalanche data obtained through our own observations. The project will investigate new relationships between weather factors and avalanches in Kredarica (Julian Alps, since 1952) and Zelenica ( Karawanks, since 2012). The studied effects of climate change on avalanches will be evaluated with dendrochronological analyzes performed by the cooperating institute. The project has management implications due to the recent increased use of soft, non-structural measures, including data-driven management. An important part is monitoring and analysis of weather and snow conditions, which we are addressing with this project. The research will provide better forecasts and timely warnings, improve spatial planning, and improve general and specific disaster risk management.