MIG@B | Modelling of international migrant flows in the Balkans

Political developments in the European Union since 2015 were largely marked by the refugee or migrant crisis. A characteristic of migrant flows to the EU since 2015 was unpredictability: the emergence of the “Balkan route” has led to the first encounter of unprepared countries between Greece and Austria with a large number of migrants. Countries on the Balkan route thus frequently changed their approach, regulations, and measures to tackle the refugee crisis. Uncoordinated and inadequate action by the EU Member States led to several situations, which were or still are a threat to public safety, health of migrants and local residents. Inadequate informing of population has contributed to the growing discontent of parts of population over the arrival of migrants, the rise of hate speech and increased support for extreme right-wing political parties and movements. Modelling the rapidly changing dynamics of migrant flows in the EU and its surroundings would allow understanding of the processes of formation of new migrant routes, potential humanitarian emergencies and other unforeseen phenomena, requires a multidisciplinary approach and an integration of all relevant influential factors in the migrant decisions and integration of multiple modelling methods. The objective of the proposed research is to develop a model that will provide an understanding of processes in migrant flows and enable the identification of potential new phenomena in the dynamics of migration for researchers and stakeholders in the management of migration processes in the EU. Previous research in the field of migration has identified a number of rules and factors affecting individual decisions on migration and the choice of target countries. The developed model will allow the simulation of migration flows and prediction of the effects of potential measures and policy changes in the field of migration. The model is also to include the influence of conditions in countries of origin, transit and destination countries, the influence of geographic and political boundaries, the influence of migration and asylum policies in shaping migration routes and migration. The planned model will facilitate understanding of the dynamics of migrant flows and the development of new theories in the field of migration but will also serve as an excellent example of multi-method integration, which will encourage the development of multi-method simulation models in other problems areas. Originality and innovation of the planned simulation model is in the integration of several modelling methodologies, which will allow fine-grained modelling of migration processes in the context of a real geopolitical environment and modelling of emergent phenomena with agent-based methodology. The simulation model will therefore represent a new and original contribution to science in the field of social sciences, in the field of research of migration flows as well as in the fields of information studies, logistics and cybernetics (modelling and simulation of systems). The refugee crisis in the EU and the inadequate response of the EU and its Member States have led to a reduction of political stability in the EU; therefore the study of migrant flows and the development of models for decision support in the management of migration and the handling of migrants is a very relevant area of research, with a significant potential impact. The results of our research will be relevant for social sciences in the study of migration, as well as the institutions and organizations that will be able to use our model used as a tool to support decision-making in various scenarios and the preparation of strategies, policies and measures to better manage migration flows in the changing geopolitical situation. We intend to continue our work in this field by expanding the consortium and participating in national and EU calls for projects.