IMPACTS AND PERSPECTIVES OF CAP ON SLOVENIAN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AREAS

Impacts and perspectives of CAP on Slovenian agriculture and rural areas The goals, instruments, amount of funding and implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) importantly affect the economic situation in agriculture, as well its related sectors – forestry and agro-food, the state of the environment, and rural settlement and vitality. Due to various external (the international community) and internal (public opinion, budgetary considerations, the institutional development of the Union) factors, the CAP changes in fairly regular seven-year cycles. These reforms change the structure and amount of support funding. The policy is becoming more transparent and is introducing new goals and intentions; its environmental aspect is becoming more accentuated and markets are becoming less regulated. However, its supporting nature and the approximate level of funding remain. In 2016 a new reform cycle is beginning and it will culminate in the change of the CAP's basic regulations, presumably in the years 2018/19. We can only conjecture as to the actual radicality of reform and possible paradigm changes (Buckwell, 2015), but at the moment it seems that the changes will be less pronounced and that the key elements of the 2013 reform will remain in place. This study is intended to support the decision-making of governmental and non-governmental actors in the process of amending or adopting new CAP regulations (direct payments, market intervention, rural development). We wish to develop a broad array and focus of contextual and quantitative analysis that will en gender new knowledge regarding the effects of current measures and possibilities of new policies. There have been no integral and quantitative data-supported analyses of the effects of both CAP Pillars since Slovenia's accession to the EU. This is therefore the first key purpose of this study. We wish to add to the existing yearly monitoring of the state of agriculture, conducted by the Agricultural institute for the competent ministry, and use evaluation theory and econometric analysis to provide an integral, scientifically supported (evidence-based) assessment of the policy. The second purpose of our study is to follow, analyse and support the discussions regarding the future CAP with suggestions and empirical analyses. The study group will systematically monitor all official proposals, their amendments, and especially the positions of the many stakeholders included in the process. Based on these proposals, we will prepare reform scenarios and evaluate them (impact assessment) using adapted empirical tools. The initially conducted assessment of existing policy will play an important role in the impact assessment and development of proposals and recommendations to governmental and non-governmental organisations. We have formed a national study group consisting of individuals representing six research organisations working in the field of agriculture, forestry, public policy assessment (especially agricultural and environmental) and international relations; all have references in the field in question. Work will be conducted in 6 work packages (WPs): WP 1: Context and approach to assessment. We will formulate the specific research questions and methodology of the project. We will determine the goals of national agricultural policy and intervention logic of the measures. A detailed research plan will be prepared. WP 2: Indicators of agricultural policy. We will analyse formal and potential indicators that enable the monitoring of the realisation of set goals. A database with indicators will be established. We will analyse changes and provide a preliminary assessment regarding the realisation of agricultural policy goals. WP 3: Agricultural policy impact assessment using econometric analysis. The WP 2 database will also serve fort he purpose of econometric analysis of the influence of agricultural policy on specific indicators. This analysis will be conducted i

The study represents the first attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy in an EU Member State, which is the main scientific value-added in the field of agricultural economics. Scientific literature is mainly oriented towards detailed analyses and less towards using integral approaches. Our multi-disciplinary uniform methodology will also represent an original approach, especially the combination of econometric methods, modelling and a qualitative (political-economic and evaluation) approach to assessing measures and impacts. The results of the developed and tested econometric models will contribute to an understanding of the links between the factors and indicators of agricultural policy. We will show which factors and to what extent affect the dynamics of the selected agricultural policy indicators. It can be concluded that in case of the successful implementation of the project, the introduced approach and methodology will represent an original contribution to the development of science in the field of agricultural policy, with potential for international recognition in the form of scientific publications and presentations at scientific gatherings.

The study aims to contribute to a more efficient, targeted and effective implementation of Common Agricultural Policy, fine-tuned  to the needs and objectives of Slovenian agriculture, which will also have an indirect positive impact on economic entities. In recent decades, the CAP has been subject to substantial changes that have affected not only agricultural producers but also the agro-food industry, landowners and others. Assessment of the past and current policy and the effects of its predicted changes in terms of objectives and nature and scope of measures, including questions such as more targeted selection of individual measures, can contribute to the adequate and timely adjustments of business strategies of economic entities in agriculture, forestry and the food industry.